PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF HEART RATE VARIABILITY AND AN INTEGRAL FUNCTIONAL STATUS INDEX FOR PREDICTING ATHLETIC SUCCESS IN CYCLIC SPORTS

The prognostic value of heart rate variability, stress, recovery, and an integral functional status index for athletic success in cyclic sports was analyzed. The main cohort included 110 athletes aged 15–17 years. In swimmers, athletic success was positively associated with RMSSD (r=+0.62; p<0.01) and SDNN (r=+0.58; p<0.01), and negatively with resting heart rate (r=−0.54; p<0.05). In runners, stress index was the major negative predictor (r=−0.56; p<0.01). In cyclists, RMSSD (r=+0.57; p<0.01) and sleep duration (r=+0.52; p<0.01) were significant positive predictors. The integral algorithm showed a predictive accuracy of 78–85% and a correlation of r=0.82 (p<0.01) in a 15-athlete pilot validation sample. These findings support a multiparametric and sport-specific approach to performance prediction.