A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE RISK OF EARLY PREGNANCY LOSS FOLLOWING A POSITIVE β-hCG TEST

A mathematical model was developed to predict the risk of early pregnancy loss following a positive β-hCG test. Data from 62 women with known pregnancy outcomes were analysed. The initial dataset included 61 candidate predictors describing medical history, clinical characteristics, and examination findings. Early pregnancy loss was de­fined as biochemical pregnancy loss, spontaneous miscarriage, or missed miscarriage before 12 weeks of gestation. A linear prognostic score equation incorporating seven variables was derived using the least squares method. The coefficient of determination in the study sample was R²=0.88. A classification of prognostic score values was proposed to stratify patients into risk categories. The model requires validation and assessment of its predictive performance before clinical application.